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Prediction for CME (2024-01-05T01:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-01-05T01:53Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28485/-1
CME Note: [PRELIMINARY] Bright CME in the SE with the source is likely a significant eruption just SE of AR 3536 (N06E23) seen in AIA and SUVI 304 starting at 2024-01-05T00:20Z, with an EUV wave seen in AIA 193.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-01-07T22:57Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-01-05 07:49
 - Time at C2: 2024-01-05 01:53
 - Radial speed: 552.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 22 deg
 - Eruption location: S14E32
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 571.60 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2024-01-07 22:57 (i.e. predicted transit time: 69.08 hours)
Lead Time: 21.78 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2024-01-07T01:10Z
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